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Weekly jobless claims rise to highest level since August
  + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Lucy Bayly | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York CNN —First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to 231,000, the highest level since August, in another sign that the white-hot labor market is starting to cool off. Thursday’s data also showed that the number of continuing claims, or applications from people who have filed for unemployment for at least one week, was 1.78 million. That’s an increase of 17,000 from the prior week, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% last month, it’s the 27th consecutive month that the jobless rate has held under 4%, matching a streak last seen in the late 1960s. The Federal Reserve has been battling inflation by raising its key lending rate in the hopes of slowing the economy.
Persons: , Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell, ” Ian Shepherdson, It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, , Federal Reserve, Pantheon Economics Locations: New York, Fwdbonds
Weekly jobless claims jump to 231,000, the highest since August
  + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Initial filings for unemployment benefits hit their highest level since late August 2023 in a potential sign that an otherwise robust labor market is changing. Also, job openings have been declining amid expectations that the labor market is likely to slow through the year. The four-week moving average of claims, which helps smooth out weekly volatility in numbers, increased to 215,000, up 4,750 from the previous week. "One week does not a trend make, but we can no longer be sure that calm seas lie ahead for the US economy if today's weekly jobless claims are any indication." Markets reacted little to the jobless claims release, with stock market futures slightly negative and Treasury yields mixed.
Persons: Dow Jones, Christopher Rupkey, Robert Frick Organizations: Labor Department, Navy Federal Credit Union Locations: New York
Key takeaways from the latest jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
“The economy remains strong, held up by a robust labor market,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist with FwdBonds, in a note Friday. Still, Friday’s jobs report also showed that the whopping gains initially recorded for January and December were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs. January’s job gains now sit at an estimated 229,000 (down from the blowout 353,000); and December’s job growth at 290,000 (down from 333,000). In February, that included construction (up 23,000 jobs); transportation and warehousing (up 19,700 jobs); and retail (up 18,700 jobs). Friday’s jobs report showed that wage growth is indeed slowing.
Persons: , Christopher Rupkey, FwdBonds, , ” Robert Frick, , ” Diane Swonk, Swonk, February’s, ” Frick, Julissa Carielo, ” Swonk, Gus Faucher, Lydia Boussour, EY, Boussour, Janet Yellen, CNN’s Kate Bolduan, they’re, ” Yellen, Price, CNN’s Bryan Mena Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, KPMG US, Health, Baby Boomers, Transportation Security Administration, DreamOn, Inc, Boomers, Fed, Labor, Federal, PNC Financial Services, “ Fed Locations: New York, San Antonio , Texas, Texas
Now, as a new week unfolds, the debate is shifting to how strong the economy performed at year-end and whether 2024 will also bring good tidings. Recent inflation data has shown prices are trending back toward the central bank’s target of 2% annual inflation. The Fed will have its first meeting of 2024 late this month after holding interest rates steady at its December meeting. A stronger economy or a hotter-than-expected reading on inflation might push the first cut into the second half of the year. Another important piece of the economic puzzle will be the leading economic index from The Conference Board, due out Monday.
Persons: ” Christopher Rupkey, , Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Conference Board Locations: COVID
The quickest growth pace in nearly two years reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. The upward revision to growth last quarter reflected upgrades to business investment on structures, mostly warehouses and healthcare facilities. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth. Profits rose at a 0.8% rate in the second quarter.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Gregory Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, New York, EY, Charlotte , North Carolina
The growth pace, which was the quickest in nearly two years, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth, instead of the 1.32 percentage points estimated last month. Higher wages contributed to the economy growing at a 1.5% rate last quarter, the fastest in a year, when measured from the income side. That suggested trade could be a drag on GDP growth this quarter after being a neutral factor in the April-June period.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Conrad DeQuadros, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Analysis, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Brean, BEA, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere could be a possible recession, says economist Christopher RupkeyGregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the recent labor market data, whether a recession is looming, and more.
Persons: Christopher Rupkey Gregory Daco, Christopher Rupkey, Steve Liesman Locations: EY
The Producer Price Index, which measures the average price changes that businesses pay to suppliers, fell 0.5% on a monthly basis. It’s the largest monthly drop since April 2020, when the rapidly spreading Covid-19 virus caused a sharp economic contraction. When stripping out the volatile food and energy categories, core PPI was unchanged for the month, bringing the yearly increase to 2.4%. On Tuesday, the October Consumer Price Index showed that US consumer prices were unchanged for the month, contributing to a slowdown in the annual inflation rate to 3.2%. “Fed officials are getting to keep their cake and eat it too, so far with economic growth and inflation cooling.
Persons: Price, , Chris Rupkey, Andrew Butters, “ There’s, ” Butters, we’ve Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, FwdBonds, “ Fed, CPI, Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Fed, CNN Locations: Minneapolis
US consumer prices unchanged; core inflation slowing
  + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Grocery food inflation increased 0.3%, driven by gains in the prices of meat, fish and eggs. Reuters GraphicsGOODS DEFLATIONExcluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.2% amid higher costs for rental housing. Health insurance costs rebounded as the BLS implemented changes to the methodology it uses to calculate health insurance prices, effective with October's CPI release. The old method was based on an annual calculation using aggregated health insurance premium and benefit data. There were concerns about the volatility in the annual data and the lag involved in incorporating the health insurance financial data.
Persons: Bing Guan, Christopher Rupkey, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Tuesday, Treasury, Reuters, Fed, CPI, Thomson Locations: SoHo, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON
Market-churning economic news is lacking this week, but that doesn’t mean Wall Street and the economy can rest easy. The political news heats up, with Donald Trump set to testify in his civil fraud trial in New York. And elections take place across the country on Tuesday that could show where the country stands politically one year out from the 2024 election. Meanwhile, a softer-than-expected jobs report on Friday had some analysts saying the economy was headed for a downturn. “The unemployment rate rose just a tenth to 3.9% in October versus September which the BLS called little changed,” he said.
Persons: Donald Trump, State Anthony Blinken, Bond, , Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, ” Chris Rupkey, Powell, ” Powell, Organizations: GOP, Hamas, State, West Bank, Federal Reserve, ZipRecruiter, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, BCA Research Locations: New York, Miami, Israel, Iraq, Turkey, Washington
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report from the Labor Department on Wednesday also showed layoffs dropping to a nine-month low. There were 1.50 job openings for every unemployed person in September, slightly up from 1.49 in August and way above the pre-pandemic ratio of 1.2. Data for August was revised lower to show 9.497 million job openings instead of the previously reported 9.610 million. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.250 million job openings in September. Job openings dropped 43,000 in federal government and there were 41,000 open positions in the information industry.
Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Conrad DeQuadros, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Treasury, Reuters, Brean, Institute for Supply Management, United Auto Workers, UAW, Detroit's Big, Ford Motor, General Motors, Chrysler, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York
US weekly jobless claims hit nine-month low
  + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Though the labor market is gradually cooling, conditions remain tight, with claims at the very low end of their range of 194,000 to 265,000 for this year. The Fed's Beige Book report on Wednesday said "labor market tightness continued to ease across the nation" in early October and implied cooling wage pressure. The labor market is driving consumer spending and the overall economy, ultimately keeping inflation elevated. The claims report covered the week during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls component of October's employment report. The so-called continuing claims increased 29,000 to a still-low 1.734 million during the week ending Oct. 7, the claims report showed.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Christopher Rupkey, Unadjusted, Jerome Powell's, Jay Hawkins, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Financial, Treasury, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, U.S, Economic, of New, National Association of Realtors, realtors, BMO Capital Markets, Philadelphia Fed, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Texas , New York , New Jersey, Georgia, California, Tennessee, Michigan, of New York, Toronto, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware
In addition, the jump in housing starts partially recouped the decline in August. The rebound in homebuilding probably reflected permits approved several months ago before mortgage rates broke above 7%. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 963,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. Single-family starts rose in the Midwest, West and the densely populated South, but plunged 19.0% in the Northeast. Though permits are a leading indicator, economists cautioned against being too optimistic about homebuilding prospects, citing the soaring mortgage rates and souring builder sentiment.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, homebuilding, homebuilders, Conrad DeQuadros, Christopher Rupkey, Colin Johanson, Lucia Mutikani, Dan Burns, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Brean, Commerce Department, Data, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Reuters, Realtors, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, WASHINGTON, homebuilding, New York, Midwest, West, Northeast, U.S
REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Retail sales increase 0.7% in SeptemberCore retail sales rise 0.6%; August sales revised upManufacturing production increases 0.4%WASHINGTON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in September as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and spent more at restaurants and bars, cementing expectations that economic growth accelerated sharply in the third quarter. Retail sales rose 0.7% last month. Economists defended their forecast for tepid retail sales growth, which they said was based on softening consumer confidence. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rose 0.6% in September. Data for August was revised up to show these so-called core retail sales gaining 0.2% instead of 0.1% as previously reported.
Persons: Eduardo Munoz, Goldman Sachs, Christopher Rupkey, James Knightley, Jay Hawkins, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters, Commerce Department's, ING, BMO Capital Markets, Treasury, Financial, Amazon, Commerce Department, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Toronto
Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, more than twice what economists had expected, and close to a revised 0.8% bump in August, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The government’s monthly retail sales report offers only a partial look at consumer spending; it doesn’t include many services, including health care, travel and hotel lodging. But the robust sales report also means that the Fed officials could leave the door open for additional rate hikes. The retail sales report came as businesses across the U.S. economy ramped up hiring in September, defying surging interest rates, and the ongoing threat of a government shutdown. Consumer prices rose 0.4% from August to September, below the previous month’s 0.6% pace.
Persons: wasn’t, , Christopher S, Rupkey, , Tim Quinlan, Christopher Rugaber, , Anne Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Fed, FWDBONDS, “ Fed, Analysts, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, , Labor Department Locations: Israel, Wells Fargo, U.S, Washington
The so-called core PPI increased 2.8% on a year-on-year basis in September after climbing 2.9% in August. Wholesale goods prices increased 0.9%, with a 3.3% rise in the cost of energy products accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core goods prices edged up 0.1% for the second straight month. This mostly reflected the normalization of supply chains, whose disruption fueled goods inflation in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Though core inflation is cooling, higher gasoline and food prices could hamper progress by raising the cost of other goods as well as causing consumers to expect inflation to rise.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Christopher Rupkey, Will Compernolle, Alex McGrath, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Reuters, PPI, Reuters Graphics, Trade, Fed, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, WASHINGTON, New York, East, Greenville , South Carolina
Minneapolis CNN —Wholesale price increases of US goods and services jumped higher for a third consecutive month, influenced by still-high energy prices, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. September’s overall increase was driven by a 0.9% gain in goods prices due to higher energy prices and food prices, BLS data shows. Gas prices hit new yearly highs in September, as oil prices pushed past $92 a barrel amid supply cuts and catastrophic flooding in Libya. The higher gas prices seen in August and September may filter through to some products and services but shouldn’t ultimately keep inflation higher in the months to come, said Stuart Hoffman, PNC Financial Services’ senior economic adviser. However, the Israel and Hamas war in the Middle East does add volatility to energy prices, he said.
Persons: Price, , Gregory Daco, Jerome Powell, Chris Rupkey, FwdBonds, shouldn’t, Stuart Hoffman, ” Hoffman Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, PPI, PNC Financial Services Locations: Minneapolis, August’s, Libya, Israel
Here's why this jobs report is going to cost you
  + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( David Goldman | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
So you’d think some really, really, shockingly good news about the job market would give Americans’ spirits a boost. So a robust job market won’t make most people feel like the economy is strong. The Fed is working to slow the economy by hiking interest rates — the only tool it has to fight inflation. We should never cheer a bad job market. But a job market that has remained this healthy for this long really isn’t excellent news for average Americans struggling to pay their bills.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, , Chris Rupkey, Jamie Dimon Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, SSRS, JPMorgan Locations: New York, Government
Trade balanceExports of goods and services increased 1.6% to $256.0 billion. Goods imports dropped 0.9% to $256.0 billion amid declines in imports of consumer and capital goods, potentially flagging softening domestic demand amid higher borrowing costs. Cell phones and other household goods accounted for the drop in consumer goods imports. The decrease in capital goods imports reflected declines in semiconductors and electric apparatus. Services imports increased $0.1 billion to $58.4 billion, supported by travel and other business services.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Christopher Rupkey, Unadjusted, nonfarm payrolls, Oscar Munoz, Goldman Sachs, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Reuters, Employers, Institute for Supply Management, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Treasury, Challenger, Labor, Securities, Commerce Department, Goods, Services, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City , New York, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Ohio, California
US job openings unexpectedly grew in August
  + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Minneapolis CNN —The number of job openings at US employers unexpectedly surged in August, a testament to the continued strength of the labor market, according to new data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There were an estimated 9.61 million open jobs in August, according to seasonally adjusted data from the BLS’ latest monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. That’s up from July’s upwardly revised estimate of 8.92 million openings. The consensus estimate from economists was for 8.8 million openings, according to Refinitiv. Federal Reserve officials have frequently pointed to the robust labor market, particularly the imbalance of job postings to job seekers, as a key factor in helping to lower inflation.
Persons: August’s, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, , Christopher Rupkey, Stocks Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Labor, CNN, Federal Reserve, FwdBonds, Dow Locations: Minneapolis
Tight labor market conditions continue to prevail, with the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rising slightly last week, other data showed on Thursday. Some economists believe that the economy's resilience and tight labor market could give the Federal Reserve ammunition to raise interest rates again in November. Reuters GraphicsSTRONG LABOR MARKETThe economy is being underpinned by a resilient labor market, which is driving strong wage gains. The labor market has continued to hold its own so far. The unemployment rate increased to 3.8% in August from 3.5% in July.
Persons: Mike Blake, Christopher Rupkey, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Port, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Gross, Reuters Graphics, U.S . House, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford, Labor Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Port of Los Angeles, San Pedro , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York
Retail sales rose 0.6% last month. Higher gasoline prices boosted producer prices in August, other data from the Labor Department showed on Thursday. Excluding gasoline stations, retail sales rose 0.2% last month. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, rose 0.3% after increasing 0.8% in July. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales edged up 0.1% in August.
Persons: Mike Blake, Christopher Rupkey, Goldman Sachs, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Reuters, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Labor Department, Treasury, delinquencies, New York Federal Reserve, Gross, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Carlsbad , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York
Consumer spending is being supported by a tight labor market, with other data showing first-time applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly falling last week. "How long inflation can continue to come down with consumer spending this strong is an open question." When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased 0.6%, also the largest gain since January. The so-called real consumer spending rose 0.4% in June. The annual PCE inflation rates were lifted by a lower base of comparison last year.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Christopher Rupkey, nonfarm payrolls, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Services, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Employers, Labor Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, outlays
That was reinforced by a survey from the Conference Board showing consumers' perceptions of the labor market cooled in August. Nevertheless, labor market conditions remain tight, with 1.51 job openings for every unemployed person in July, compared to 1.54 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.465 million job openings. State and local government education job openings declined by 62,000 and there were 27,000 fewer federal government vacancies. Reuters GraphicsDeclining job openings are likely to be mirrored by slower job growth in August.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Conrad DeQuadros, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jeffrey Roach, Christopher Rupkey, Scott Anderson, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Board, Brean, Reuters, Midwest, Reuters Graphics, LPL Financial, Treasury, Fed, Companies, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Northeast, West, Wyoming, Charlotte , North Carolina, Stocks, San Francisco
New York CNN —To hear Republican presidential candidates describe the US economy, you’d think it was in a deep recession, with growth and productivity choked off by President Joe Biden’s policies. The economy is strong, but most Americans say they don’t feel good about it, according to polls. HousingAnother reason voters are down on the economy: Housing affordability is at its lowest point in decades. In fact, economic growth is booming thanks to the strong labor market and resilient consumer spending. We won’t have a complete read on third-quarter economic growth until late October, but already, forecasts for GDP “are running wild on the upside,” writes Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds.
Persons: New York CNN —, Joe Biden’s, Biden, Republicans can’t, what’s, — it’s, Jerome Powell, Trump, , It’s, deride “, , Chris Rupkey Organizations: New, New York CNN, Republicans, GOP, CNN, Federal, Inflation Fox News, Wisconsin, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Trump, Biden, Corporations, FwdBonds, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: New York, Ukraine, America, United States
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